Long Range Facilities

We are proud to partner with city, village and town administrators and planners to gather and analyze data for enrollment purposes. We also look at county, state and even national trends as we build a fuller picture for enrollment projections. Local housing development, home sales, population trends, household size, median age, birth rates, and more all contribute to the overall analysis.

Population growth comes from two places: Natural Increase (births minus deaths) and Net Migration (people moving in). Migration often brings adults, but enrollment depends almost entirely on the local birth rate from five years prior. If the median age is high, the birth rate is usually low, meaning the "feeder system" for students is decreasing even as the total population increases.

Local Population
The Capital Area Regional Planning Group projects an increase in Dane County population to approximately 887,000 by 2050 (an increase of 56% since the 2020 census). Monona’s population is projected by the CARPG to be 10,500 in 2050 (an increase of 21% since the 2020 census). It seems like a paradox when the total population is projected to increase, yet our school district is facing a "demographic cliff" and shrinking enrollment. This phenomenon is driven by demographic inversion, where a rising median age changes the fundamental "math" of a city. 

The median age in Monona has increased over the last 20 years from 42 years in 2000 to 45 in 2022. The median age in all of Dane County is nearly a full decade lower at 36 years (the Dane County median age in 2000 was 33 years). (Ref: Capital Area Regional Planning Group: Webinar, slides, fact sheet and City of Monona Comprehensive Planning Committee materials) For reference, the median age in Cottage Grove has increased over the last 20 years from 31 in 2000 to 40 in 2024.

Birth rates

According to the WI Department of Health Services, fertility in Wisconsin fell sharply between 1955 123.4 births per 1000 females aged 15-44 years) and 1975 (58.2 births per 1000 females aged 15-44). Rates rose slightly and plateaued from 1995 (58.9 births per 1000 females aged 15 to 44) to 2016 (61.5 births per 1000 females aged 15-44 years). The fertility rate has been dropping every year since (59.9 births per 1000 females aged 15-44 years in 2017 to 52.8 births per 1000 females aged 15-44 in 2024).

The decrease in the total fertility rate causes uneven age distribution. As time passes, the age distribution’s peak shifts from younger age groups to older age groups. As baby boomers enter an age group, that age group’s ranks swell. As they leave an age group, that age group’s ranks shrink. The graph below shows Wisconsin age distribution for 2010, projected age distribution for 2030, and projected age distribution for 2050.

Ref: Wisconsin DOA 

In the first decade of the projections period (2020-2030) Wisconsin’s total population is expected to be somewhat stable. In the two decades following that (2030-2040 and 2040-2050), Wisconsin’s total population is expected to decrease slightly, while remaining above its 2010 level.

Ref: Wisconsin DOA

Generational attitude shifts

Attitudes about having children and families are also shifting substantially. The Pew Research Center reports that fewer US high school seniors indicate they will likely choose to get married some day. As of 2023, 67% of the nation’s 12th graders say they’ll likely choose to get married someday, down from 80% in 1993. Of those who say they are likely to get married, fewer than half (48%) say they will very likely have children, down from 64% in 1993.

(November 14, 2025)  

Average household size

The average household size in Monona has decreased over the past two decades (from 2.12 to 2.05). This is lower than county (2.26) and state overall (2.37). (Ref: City of Monona Comprehensive Plan Committee materials). 

The Capital Area Regional Planning Group also reports that household size has been falling for various reasons, including economic instability and uncertainty for young adults, and a large population of older adults (baby boomers). (Ref: Capital Area Regional Planning Group Webinar, slides, fact sheet)

Local housing plans

Much of the population increase in Monona will come from new apartments that are primarily studios and 1-bedroom. While it is true that some families will move into these apartments, most units will not be occupied by families. Families that do live in apartments, particularly in 1- and even 2-bedroom units, are most often using the apartment as a transition in their housing circumstances and typically are not long-term residents. While turnover in single-family home sales is happening in Monona as it is in other municipalities, turnover is not happening at an unexpected rate. In addition to housing, lower birth rates combined with increasing median age and decreasing household size all contribute to the projected decrease in enrollment.

As we move forward, a timeline may be established and will be posted. For now, we are strictly in the very early stages of fact-finding and information gathering. We are committed to transparency and will provide updates in School Board meetings, on this website, and in staff, family, and community newsletters. 

Maywood School closed in 2011 and has not been needed for Monona elementary students for 15 years. Population data, enrollment history, enrollment forecasting, and a shift in Open Enrollment all point to the same trend: total enrollment is declining to flat.

Resident enrollment is projected to increase slightly by 2029 but that increase is outpaced by the reduction in Open Enrollment at Winnequah. For example, in 2024-25 there were 95 Open Enrolled students at Winnequah (of 596 total enrollment). By 2030-31, there will be just 6 Open Enrolled students at Winnequah (of a projected 563 total enrollment)--a decrease of 89 students. During that same time, resident enrollment is expected to change from 501 (2024-25) to a projected 557 (2030-31)--and increase of 56 students--an overall reduction of 33 students.

The chart below shows how the Open Enrollment will decrease more quickly than the resident enrollment increase, as well as how occupancy plays a role (see FAQ on occupancy for more). The total enrollment projected in 2030-31 (563 students) will be lower than total enrollment at Winnequah in 2017-18 (580 students).
 

Ref: Student enrollment information can be found on WI Department of Public Instruction's public data portal, WISEdash. 

In 2024-25, there were 95 Open Enrolled students at Winnequah. By 2030-31 there will be just 6 open enrolled students. While resident enrollment is expected to increase by 56 students in that time, the decrease of 89 open enrollment students still nets an overall decrease of 33 students. See the question above "Is Maywood needed if Winnequah exceeds capacity" for more information, including a chart explaining the change.

Overall there is a shifting philosophy on how Open Enrollment should be implemented in our school district. For example, in 2021-22, there was no limit on the number of 4K Open Enrollment seats and over 132 Open Enrollment seats available (in that year alone) across the district. In 2023-24, there were 123 Open Enrollment seats available, 35% of which (48 seats) were for incoming 4K students. In 2026-27, Monona Grove will have just 3 Open Enrollment seats available across the entire district.  

Because our 4K students attend for a half day, occupancy at our schools that serve 4K students is slightly less than total enrollment at those schools. For example, at Winnequah the total enrollment for 2025-26 is 613, with an occupancy of 582, ie., there are 582 students in the building at a time. 

At Taylor Prairie School in 2025-26, total enrollment is 226, with total occupancy at 178. With the consolidation of Taylor Prairie School and Cottage Grove School next year, we anticipate total enrollment to be 504, with an occupancy of 459 students. 

"Crowdedness" often refers to how we use the space, not the physical limits. We are currently using "extra" classrooms for specialized student supports like reading intervention and small-group work. While this makes the building feel "full," it is a strategic choice to provide services in a specific way. If needed, those rooms can return to being standard classrooms.

Winnequah is a "legacy" building (built before 1960) and has been a middle school, a grades 3-5 school, and a 4K-5 school. Older schools were built with a higher percentage of square footage dedicated to classrooms and less to wide hallways, large lobbies and features like social stairs. Modern standards look at the whole "footprint," but we look at where the learning actually happens—the classrooms—which remain highly functional.

If all spaces in Winnequah that could be standard classrooms (homerooms) as indicated above are all filled to the Board goal for class size, there would be 719 students. It does not mean that the goal is to increase the enrollment of Winnequah to 719. Enrollment is currently 613 and is expected to decrease despite an overall population increase in Monona (see questions on increasing population below, and resources from the Capital Area Regional Planning Group on the right sidebar of this page).

No, this is not a consideration and it has not been raised as an option by the Administration or the School Board. 

Aside from likely high transportation costs the district would incur under this scenario, this would not serve students’ best interests. Elementary students are best served in their home town with minimal transitions when possible. We have seen no data or projections indicating this would be either a need or an effective solution should the need arise. 

We recognize that questions have been raised regarding data from previous years, particularly enrollment projections in the lead up to the referendum to build Granite Ridge and remodel all other schools including Winnequah School. 

While we cannot change the past and can not speak to previous practices and philosophies, our focus is now on ensuring that every data point we use is verified, contextualized, and used solely to improve student outcomes. If/when we find inaccuracies, we will correct it with transparent indications of the update/correction.

Data is not just numbers; it represents the lived experience of our students, families and staff. Accurate data ensures we are directing our limited resources—taxpayer dollars—to the areas of greatest need. Integrity in our data is a prerequisite for fiscal accountability.

At the December 16th Board meeting, the Board approved four items as it relates to long range facilities planning, as described below. Additional details can be found on BoardDocs and the meeting recording.

1. APPROVED: Relocation of Taylor Prairie Students/Staff to Cottage Grove School under a 4K–2 grade Consolidation Beginning in the 2026–2027 School Year, Including a Traffic Reduction Solution to Support this Transition (Materials)

This agenda item is a direct result of the Board's decision in December 2024 to pause the previously approved 4K-2 reconfiguration of Cottage Grove School (CGS) and Taylor Prairie School (TPS) due to financial and enrollment factors. The administration's recommendation is driven by a focus on fiscal sustainability, educational efficiency, and long-range capacity planning. Both CGS and TPS are currently operating below capacity, creating operational inefficiencies and duplicated services. Updated enrollment projections data confirms CGS can accommodate al 4K-2 students for at least the next five years. Staff have been offered tours of the CGS, MGEA hosted two listening session as well as ongoing collaboration between MGEA, Building and District Administration. 

Traffic congestion has historically been cited as the single most significant logistical barrier to implementing the consolidation of Taylor Prairie students and staff at Cottage Grove School (CGS). Administration, recognizing that the consolidation is key to operational efficiency and is backed by favorable enrollment data, initiated a focused analysis to definitively address this concern. The analysis, conducted in partnership with CG Schmidt, confirms that effective traffice reduction solutions are feasible, thereby removing this final major obstacle to the proposed 4K–2 consolidation. This proactive resolution allows the district to move forward with a fiscally responsible plan that protects instructional quality.

Previous materials are located in October 28, 2025 Board Work Session and the November 11, 2025 Board Meeting. See more information below in the "District Update: 4K-2 Consolidation Approved" article. (begins at 2:39:26)

2. APPROVED: Authorization to Engage a Licensed Real Estate Broker to Gather Information on the Fair Market Value and Potential Sale of Maywood School and to Bring Findings and Recommendations to the Board for Review (Materials)

This authorizing the engagement of a licensed real estate broker to evaluate the fair market value and potential sale of Maywood School. The background for this action is that Maywood is currently underutilized, housing the 4K wrap-around program and the Transition Program (ages 18–21), and is partially leased to the City of Monona. Critically, the building requires significant capital investment that is projected to exceed its remaining useful life as a school facility.

Previous materials are located in October 28, 2025, Board Work Session and the November 11, 2025 Board Meeting. See more information below in the "District Update: 4K-2 Consolidation Approved" article. (begins at 2:57:32)

3. APPROVED: Authorization to Engage a Licensed Real Estate Broker to Gather Information on the Fair Market Value and Potential Sale of Nichols Property, and bring Findings and Recommendations to the Board for Review (Materials)

This action stems directly from the October 28, 2025 Work Session as well as the November 11th discussion where administration reviewed the district-wide capital challenges as well as enrollment trends. The Nichols Building, which houses the about twenty-four (24) District Office staff, and MG 21charter school requires approximately $3 million in capital improvements. 

Previous Materials are located in October 28, 2025 Board Work Session and the November 11, 2025 Board Meeting.

There were two recommended action options, listed below, and the Board acted on Option 1.

Option 1: Move to authorize the Superintendent or designee to Engage a Licensed Real Estate Broker to Gather Information on the Fair Market Value for Nichols Property, and bring Findings and Recommendations to the Board for Review
OR
Option 2: Move to authorize the Superintendent or designee to Engage a unbiased commercial appraiser at a cost not to exceed $12,000 to Gather Information on the Fair Market Value for Nichols Property, and bring Findings and Recommendations to the Board for Review. See more information below in the "District Update: 4K-2 Consolidation Approved" article. (begins at 2:58:54)

4. APPROVED: Authorization of Financial and Operational Planning Necessary to Evaluate Relocating District Office Staff and the MG21 Charter School to the Taylor Prairie Facility and to Bring Findings and Recommendations to the Board for Review (Materials)

This study is directly tied to the proposed 4K–2 consolidation at CGS which will vacate TPS, and the potential sale of the Nichols Building, which currently houses the DO staff and MG21 Charter School. 

Previous materials are located in October 28, 2025, Board Work Session and the November 11, 2025 Board Meeting. See more information below in the "District Update: 4K-2 Consolidation Approved" article. (begins at 3:11:34)

At the November 11th Board meeting, the Board discussed four items as it relates to long range facilities planning, as described below. Additional details can be found on BoardDocs and the meeting recording.

1. Authorization of Relocation of Taylor Prairie Students/Staff to Cottage Grove School under a 4K-2 grade Consolidation Beginning in the 2026-2027 School Year, Including a Traffic Reduction Solution to Support this Transition (Materials)

On October 11, 2023, the Monona Grove School District Board of Education approved the Teaching, Learning, and Equity Committee and Administration’s recommendation to implement a 4K–2 grade configuration for Cottage Grove School (CGS) and Taylor Prairie School (TPS), beginning in the 2025–2026 school year.

At the December 11, 2024 Board meeting, the Board unanimously voted to pause implementation due to emerging factors, including budget constraints and updated enrollment projections. It is important to note that this pause does not diminish the educational value of reducing transitions for students, which remains a priority for the district. The decision was driven solely by financial and enrollment considerations. At that time, the Board directed administration to review enrollment projections and building capacity and recommend a plan moving forward.

Updated data indicate that both Cottage Grove and Taylor Prairie schools are operating below capacity, resulting in duplicated positions and services that reduce overall efficiency. Five-year enrollment projections, combined with building capacity data, confirm that all current TPS and CGS students can be accommodated within the Cottage Grove School building for the next five years at a minimum.

A historical barrier to consolidation has been traffic. A traffic reduction analysis has been completed, and findings indicate that traffic concerns can be addressed effectively.

The Board will consider action on this item at its regular meeting on December 9. If consolidation is not approved, the reconfiguration plan will be "unpaused," meaning that Taylor Prairie School and Cottage Grove School would be neighborhood schools each serving students in 4K-2 using the boundary previously approved by the Board in September 2024. (begins at 1:11:41)

2. Authorization to Engage a Licensed Real Estate Broker to Gather Information on the Fair Market Value and Potential Sale of Maywood School and to Bring Findings and Recommendations to the Board for Review (Materials)

Maywood houses the City of Monona Park and Rec 4K wrap program and Transition Program students (18–21). The property is currently leased to the City for $62,000/year but operates at a net loss after maintenance and staffing costs.

Discussions with the City of Monona indicate they would like to know the fair market value.

New school construction general rules of thumb are listed below and indicate that the site would be too small to build a school in the future as Maywood property is 7.7 acres:

Elementary: 10 acres + 1 acre per 100 students.  

Middle: 20 acres + 1 acre per 100 students

High: 30 acres + 1 acre per 100 students

The Board will consider action on this item at its regular meeting on December 16. (begins at 2:14:01)

3. Authorization to Engage a Licensed Real Estate Broker to Gather Information on the Fair Market Value and Potential Nichols Property, and bring Findings and Recommendations to the Board for Review (Materials)

Developers have expressed interest to the City of additional mixed residential and business opportunities in Monona. The Board expressed interest in engaging with a licensed real estate appraiser rather than a broker for this property. The Board will consider action on this item at its regular meeting on December 16. (begins at 2:42:35)

4. Authorize Financial and Operational Planning Necessary to Evaluate Relocating District Office Staff and the MG21 Charter School to the Taylor Prairie Facility and to Bring Findings and Recommendations to the Board for Review (Materials)

This would retain the TPS site for long-term district needs and anticipated future enrollment growth. MG21 leadership has toured TPS; relocation planning shall consider student access to amenities in Monona and operational logistics for district staff.

The Board will consider action on this item at its regular meeting on December 16. (begins at 3:00:56)